Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Dance of the Superdelegates

(not to be confused with Dance of the Sugar-Plum Fairy...)
Today is the day that Barack Obama allegedly clinches the Democratic nomination for president. Party officials are heaping pressure on Hillary Clinton to bow out of the race, because mathematically, she simply cannot overtake Obama and muster enough delegates to win.

Whoa. Not so fast, cowboy.

If Senator Obama had the actual number of pledged delegates, then the above would be correct. But such is not the case. Leaders of the Democratic party, or whoever it is that runs the delegate tote board, are counting superdelegates, as well. Let's talk about them, for just a minute.

Superdelegates of the Democratic Party are current and former party leaders and elected officials. For example, Jennifer Granholm, the governor of Michigan, is a superdelegate, as is former governor Jim Blanchard. Former president Bill Clinton also happens to be one. And on and on... you get the idea.

By their very nature, superdelegates are UNpledged. There is no process or mechanism to pledge them. No matter what they may say to either Obama, Clinton, or the media, they are NOT bound to stick with that. It's not like Final Jeopardy, where you write your answer and then have to put your "pen" down. These superdelegates could change their minds every day (or every hour, for that matter), right up until the time when they cast their votes at the Democratic National Convention in late August. THAT is the only true time when they have to actually commit to a candidate.

So, while I would never be mistaken for a Hillary supporter, I don't think she should drop out of the race just yet. You can no more rely on superdelegates as part of the tally than you can on whose yard autumn leaves will fall onto.

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